NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#44 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tricked#47 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWalczaki pick
67%60%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Tricked · 1 map
InfernoTricked pick
60%60%
Walczaki · 1 mapnearly even +0%Tricked · 1 map
NukeWalczaki ban
33%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Tricked +17%Tricked · 0 maps
Dust2Tricked ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%Tricked · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Nuke
2. BanTricked remove Dust2
3. PickWalczaki take Mirage
4. PickTricked take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Walczaki 53%Tricked 47%
The model gave 53% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Walczaki 47%Tricked 53%
The model gave 53% on Tricked — the map was taken by Tricked.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Walczaki 33%Tricked 67%
The model gave 67% on Tricked — the map was taken by Tricked.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 54%
Series resultTricked 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3