NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tricked#44 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
64%57%
Walczaki · 18 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Tricked · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%50%
Walczaki · 11 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Tricked · 0 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
73%63%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Tricked · 4 maps
InfernoTricked pick
60%50%
Walczaki · 6 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Tricked · 4 maps
AnubisTricked ban
75%50%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +25%Tricked · 0 maps
Dust2Tricked ban
64%50%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +14%Tricked · 0 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
33%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Tricked +17%Tricked · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
2. BanTricked remove Dust2
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickTricked take Inferno
5. BanTricked remove Anubis
6. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Walczaki 69%Tricked 31%
The model gave 69% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
Walczaki 57%Tricked 43%
The model gave 57% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Tricked.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Walczaki 57%Tricked 43%
The model gave 57% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Tricked.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 52%
Series resultTricked 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3