ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DETONATE#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWanted Goons ban
36%30%
Wanted Goons · 7 mapsedge Wanted Goons +6%DETONATE · 6 maps
InfernoWanted Goons pick
60%33%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +27%DETONATE · 11 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
40%43%
Wanted Goons · 6 mapsnearly even -3%DETONATE · 3 maps
CacheWanted Goons ban
40%60%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge DETONATE +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
NukeDETONATE pick
29%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge DETONATE +21%DETONATE · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%25%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge Wanted Goons +25%DETONATE · 4 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
38%50%
Wanted Goons · 4 mapsedge DETONATE +12%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Cache
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickWanted Goons take Inferno
4. PickDETONATE take Nuke
5. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
6. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 25%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Wanted Goons 50%DETONATE 50%
The model gave 50% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Wanted Goons 73%DETONATE 27%
The model gave 73% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 62%
Series resultDETONATE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2