ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#194 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EMPIRE#172 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wanted Goons ban
50%50%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsnearly even +0%EMPIRE · 2 maps
NukeEMPIRE ban
50%33%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +17%EMPIRE · 2 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
50%40%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +10%EMPIRE · 1 map
DefaultEMPIRE pick
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +10%EMPIRE · 0 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
50%60%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge EMPIRE +10%EMPIRE · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
50%40%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +10%EMPIRE · 1 map
OverpassWanted Goons pick
50%60%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge EMPIRE +10%EMPIRE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
3. PickWanted Goons take Overpass
4. PickEMPIRE take Default
5. BanEMPIRE remove Nuke
6. BanWanted Goons remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Wanted Goons 53%EMPIRE 47%
The model gave 53% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Wanted Goons 57%EMPIRE 43%
The model gave 57% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Wanted Goons 67%EMPIRE 33%
The model gave 67% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 59%
Series resultWanted Goons 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3