CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fathomwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWanted Goons ban
30%50%
Wanted Goons · 6 mapsedge Fathom +20%Fathom · 0 maps
AncientWanted Goons pick
44%50%
Wanted Goons · 5 mapsedge Fathom +6%Fathom · 0 maps
NukeFathom pick
29%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Fathom +21%Fathom · 0 maps
Dust2Wanted Goons ban
33%50%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge Fathom +17%Fathom · 0 maps
AnubisFathom ban
60%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +10%Fathom · 0 maps
InfernoFathom ban
60%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +10%Fathom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
2. BanFathom remove Inferno
3. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
4. PickFathom take Nuke
5. BanFathom remove Anubis
6. BanWanted Goons remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
Wanted Goons 57%Fathom 43%
The model gave 57% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Fathom.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Wanted Goons 47%Fathom 53%
The model gave 53% on Fathom — the map was taken by Fathom.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 53%
Series resultFathom 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2