FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NineFlyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWanted Goons ban
33%40%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge NineFly +7%NineFly · 1 map
Dust2Wanted Goons pick
60%60%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapnearly even +0%NineFly · 1 map
NukeNineFly ban
50%50%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NineFly · 0 maps
AncientWanted Goons ban
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge NineFly +10%NineFly · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge NineFly +10%NineFly · 0 maps
MirageNineFly ban
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge NineFly +10%NineFly · 0 maps
OverpassNineFly pick
50%40%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +10%NineFly · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanNineFly remove Nuke
3. PickWanted Goons take Dust2
4. PickNineFly take Overpass
5. BanNineFly remove Mirage
6. BanWanted Goons remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
Wanted Goons 47%NineFly 53%
The model gave 53% on NineFly — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
Wanted Goons 43%NineFly 57%
The model gave 57% on NineFly — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 54%
Series resultWanted Goons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2