POWER Ligaen Season 32 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWashed ban
50%56%
Washed · 0 mapsedge STATE +6%STATE · 5 maps
InfernoWashed pick
60%57%
Washed · 1 mapnearly even +3%STATE · 3 maps
MirageSTATE ban
50%57%
Washed · 0 mapsedge STATE +7%STATE · 3 maps
NukeSTATE pick
50%71%
Washed · 0 mapsedge STATE +21%STATE · 3 maps
OverpassSTATE ban
50%43%
Washed · 0 mapsedge Washed +7%STATE · 3 maps
AnubisWashed ban
50%60%
Washed · 0 mapsedge STATE +10%STATE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWashed remove Ancient
2. BanSTATE remove Mirage
3. PickWashed take Inferno
4. PickSTATE take Nuke
5. BanSTATE remove Overpass
6. BanWashed remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:13
Washed 37%STATE 63%
The model gave 63% on STATE — the map was taken by Washed.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
Washed 31%STATE 69%
The model gave 69% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Washed 43%STATE 57%
The model gave 57% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 73%
Series resultSTATE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3