NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
WAZABI#251 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWAZABI ban
50%82%
WAZABI · 0 mapsedge Atreides +32%Atreides · 7 maps
AncientWAZABI ban
33%63%
WAZABI · 2 mapsedge Atreides +30%Atreides · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
WAZABI · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Atreides · 6 maps
InfernoAtreides pick
50%63%
WAZABI · 0 mapsedge Atreides +13%Atreides · 4 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
33%50%
WAZABI · 2 mapsedge Atreides +17%Atreides · 0 maps
DefaultWAZABI pick
60%60%
WAZABI · 1 mapnearly even +0%Atreides · 1 map
Dust2Atreides ban
50%33%
WAZABI · 0 mapsedge WAZABI +17%Atreides · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWAZABI remove Mirage
2. BanAtreides remove Anubis
3. PickWAZABI take Default
4. PickAtreides take Inferno
5. BanAtreides remove Dust2
6. BanWAZABI remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
WAZABI 21%Atreides 79%
The model gave 79% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
WAZABI 53%Atreides 47%
The model gave 53% on WAZABI — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteWAZABI · 53%
Series resultAtreides 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2