ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#108 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
58%61%
WBT · 8 mapsnearly even -3%Leo · 19 maps
AncientWBT ban
44%60%
WBT · 5 mapsedge Leo +16%Leo · 11 maps
AnubisWBT pick
56%33%
WBT · 5 mapsedge WBT +23%Leo · 11 maps
MirageLeo ban
64%50%
WBT · 7 mapsedge WBT +14%Leo · 4 maps
NukeWBT ban
40%58%
WBT · 1 mapedge Leo +18%Leo · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
WBT · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Leo · 0 maps
OverpassLeo ban
67%50%
WBT · 2 mapsedge WBT +17%Leo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Nuke
2. BanLeo remove Overpass
3. PickWBT take Anubis
4. PickLeo take Dust2
5. BanLeo remove Mirage
6. BanWBT remove Ancient
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
WBT 32%Leo 68%
The model gave 68% on Leo — the map was taken by WBT.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
WBT 74%Leo 26%
The model gave 74% on WBT — the map was taken by Leo.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
WBT 47%Leo 53%
The model gave 53% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 58%
Series resultLeo 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3