European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#108 in the world · win 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
50%63%
WBT · 4 mapsedge Misa +13%Misa · 15 maps
MirageWBT pick
50%46%
WBT · 4 mapsnearly even +4%Misa · 9 maps
NukeMisa ban
40%46%
WBT · 1 mapedge Misa +6%Misa · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%40%
WBT · 2 mapsedge WBT +10%Misa · 6 maps
InfernoWBT ban
50%40%
WBT · 0 mapsedge WBT +10%Misa · 6 maps
DefaultWBT ban
50%50%
WBT · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 4 maps
OverpassMisa ban
67%33%
WBT · 2 mapsedge WBT +34%Misa · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Overpass
3. PickWBT take Mirage
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanWBT remove Default
DeciderAnubis (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
WBT 34%Misa 66%
The model gave 66% on Misa — the map was taken by WBT.
Anubisprediction missed20:22
WBT 63%Misa 37%
The model gave 63% on WBT — the map was taken by Misa.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
WBT 54%Misa 46%
The model gave 54% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 64%
Series resultWBT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3