Stake Ranked Episode 3 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#108 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWBT ban
40%50%
WBT · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +10%Noir Verse · 0 maps
AnubisNoir Verse ban
60%50%
WBT · 1 mapedge WBT +10%Noir Verse · 0 maps
Dust2Noir Verse ban
60%50%
WBT · 1 mapedge WBT +10%Noir Verse · 0 maps
MirageWBT pick
60%50%
WBT · 1 mapedge WBT +10%Noir Verse · 0 maps
OverpassNoir Verse pick
60%50%
WBT · 1 mapedge WBT +10%Noir Verse · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Ancient
2. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
3. PickWBT take Mirage
4. PickNoir Verse take Overpass
5. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed17:19
WBT 53%Noir Verse 47%
The model gave 53% on WBT — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
WBT 37%Noir Verse 63%
The model gave 63% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 55%
Series resultNoir Verse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2