HyperX Retake Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#108 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RBLS pick
56%57%
WBT · 14 mapsnearly even -1%RBLS · 3 maps
AnubisWBT pick
56%50%
WBT · 14 mapsedge WBT +6%RBLS · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
59%60%
WBT · 13 mapsnearly even -1%RBLS · 1 map
MirageRBLS ban
47%50%
WBT · 11 mapsnearly even -3%RBLS · 0 maps
CacheWBT ban
36%60%
WBT · 7 mapsedge RBLS +24%RBLS · 1 map
NukeRBLS ban
64%50%
WBT · 7 mapsedge WBT +14%RBLS · 0 maps
InfernoWBT ban
50%50%
WBT · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. PickWBT take Anubis
4. PickRBLS take Dust2
5. BanRBLS remove Nuke
6. BanWBT remove Cache
DeciderAncient (59% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
WBT 61%RBLS 39%
The model gave 61% on WBT — the map was taken by RBLS.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
WBT 51%RBLS 49%
The model gave 51% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Anubisprediction correct16:13
WBT 56%RBLS 44%
The model gave 56% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 66%
Series resultWBT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3