ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 1:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aether#215 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
71%60%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +11%Aether · 1 map
NukeAether ban
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Aether · 0 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%67%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Aether +17%Aether · 2 maps
InfernoAether ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Aether · 0 maps
MirageWildcard ban
60%60%
Wildcard · 1 mapnearly even +0%Aether · 1 map
DefaultAether pick
60%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +10%Aether · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +10%Aether · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanAether remove Nuke
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickAether take Default
5. BanAether remove Inferno
6. BanWildcard remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Wildcard 60%Aether 40%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 83%
Series resultWildcard 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1