Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 1:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aether#215 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
78%67%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge Wildcard +11%Aether · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Aether · 2 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%63%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Aether +13%Aether · 4 maps
MirageAether pick
67%60%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +7%Aether · 1 map
NukeAether ban
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Aether · 0 maps
InfernoAether ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Aether · 0 maps
OverpassWildcard ban
67%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +17%Aether · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanAether remove Nuke
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickAether take Mirage
5. BanAether remove Inferno
6. BanWildcard remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Wildcard 71%Aether 29%
The model gave 71% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 88%
Series resultWildcard 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1