FRAG 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Chicken Coop ban
60%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +10%Chicken Coop · 2 maps
NukeWildcard pick
50%50%
Wildcard · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 2 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
60%60%
Wildcard · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 1 map
InfernoWildcard ban
50%60%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Inferno
2. BanChicken Coop remove Dust2
3. PickWildcard take Nuke
4. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
Wildcard 47%Chicken Coop 53%
The model gave 53% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
Wildcard 63%Chicken Coop 37%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 75%
Series resultWildcard 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2