FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EAC#76 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEAC pick
36%50%
Wildcard · 7 mapsedge EAC +14%EAC · 24 maps
InfernoWildcard pick
47%36%
Wildcard · 11 mapsedge Wildcard +11%EAC · 10 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%59%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge EAC +9%EAC · 18 maps
NukeWildcard ban
45%53%
Wildcard · 7 mapsedge EAC +8%EAC · 11 maps
AnubisEAC ban
40%47%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge EAC +7%EAC · 15 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%63%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge EAC +13%EAC · 12 maps
Dust2EAC ban
44%50%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge EAC +6%EAC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanEAC remove Dust2
3. PickWildcard take Inferno
4. PickEAC take Mirage
5. BanEAC remove Anubis
6. BanWildcard remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Wildcard 34%EAC 66%
The model gave 66% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Infernoprediction correct16:14
Wildcard 64%EAC 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Wildcard 42%EAC 58%
The model gave 58% on EAC — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 67%
Series resultWildcard 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3