ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%FarmVille · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%67%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 2 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%FarmVille · 0 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 2 maps
InfernoFarmVille pick
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 0 maps
MirageWildcard ban
60%60%
Wildcard · 1 mapnearly even +0%FarmVille · 1 map
OverpassFarmVille ban
60%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickFarmVille take Inferno
5. BanFarmVille remove Overpass
6. BanWildcard remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Wildcard 69%FarmVille 31%
The model gave 69% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Wildcard 53%FarmVille 47%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 80%
Series resultWildcard 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2