Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
75%44%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +31%FarmVille · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%57%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +10%FarmVille · 3 maps
DefaultFarmVille pick
67%67%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 2 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%43%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +7%FarmVille · 3 maps
InfernoWildcard ban
50%60%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge FarmVille +10%FarmVille · 1 map
NukeFarmVille ban
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%FarmVille · 0 maps
OverpassFarmVille ban
60%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickFarmVille take Default
5. BanFarmVille remove Overpass
6. BanWildcard remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Wildcard 50%FarmVille 50%
The model gave 50% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 85%
Series resultWildcard 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1