FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageINFINITE pick
33%50%
Wildcard · 8 mapsedge INFINITE +17%INFINITE · 16 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
50%36%
Wildcard · 12 mapsedge Wildcard +14%INFINITE · 7 maps
Dust2possible decider
44%29%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge Wildcard +15%INFINITE · 13 maps
NukeWildcard ban
50%45%
Wildcard · 8 mapsedge Wildcard +5%INFINITE · 7 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 0 mapsnearly even +0%INFINITE · 10 maps
CacheINFINITE ban
50%56%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge INFINITE +6%INFINITE · 5 maps
DefaultWildcard pick
50%71%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +21%INFINITE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
3. PickWildcard take Default
4. PickINFINITE take Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Cache
6. BanWildcard remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (44% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Wildcard 66%INFINITE 34%
The model gave 66% on Wildcard — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Wildcard 31%INFINITE 69%
The model gave 69% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 63%
Series resultINFINITE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2