FRAG 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UA#33 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
67%60%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +7%Passion UA · 1 map
MiragePassion UA ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Passion UA · 2 maps
OverpassPassion UA pick
60%60%
Wildcard · 1 mapnearly even +0%Passion UA · 1 map
InfernoWildcard ban
50%60%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Passion UA +10%Passion UA · 1 map
NukePassion UA ban
60%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +10%Passion UA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Inferno
2. BanPassion UA remove Nuke
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickPassion UA take Overpass
5. BanPassion UA remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct14:16
Wildcard 37%Passion UA 63%
The model gave 63% on Passion UA — the map was taken by Passion UA.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Wildcard 63%Passion UA 37%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Wildcard 57%Passion UA 43%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 63%
Series resultWildcard 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3