HyperX Retake Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
WIMOKloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MAYBE#173 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
40%38%
WIMOK · 1 mapnearly even +2%MAYBE · 4 maps
Dust2MAYBE ban
50%25%
WIMOK · 0 mapsedge WIMOK +25%MAYBE · 4 maps
MirageWIMOK ban
50%50%
WIMOK · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MAYBE · 4 maps
AnubisWIMOK pick
50%43%
WIMOK · 0 mapsedge WIMOK +7%MAYBE · 3 maps
DefaultWIMOK ban
50%60%
WIMOK · 0 mapsedge MAYBE +10%MAYBE · 1 map
InfernoMAYBE ban
40%50%
WIMOK · 1 mapedge MAYBE +10%MAYBE · 0 maps
NukeMAYBE pick
50%60%
WIMOK · 0 mapsedge MAYBE +10%MAYBE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWIMOK remove Mirage
2. BanMAYBE remove Inferno
3. PickWIMOK take Anubis
4. PickMAYBE take Nuke
5. BanMAYBE remove Dust2
6. BanWIMOK remove Default
DeciderAncient (40% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
WIMOK 43%MAYBE 57%
The model gave 57% on MAYBE — the map was taken by WIMOK.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
WIMOK 47%MAYBE 53%
The model gave 53% on MAYBE — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
WIMOK 50%MAYBE 50%
The model gave 50% on WIMOK — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Model check result
Model favoriteMAYBE · 60%
Series resultMAYBE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3