ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XI#239 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientXI pick
50%57%
Wingman · 2 mapsedge XI +7%XI · 3 maps
Dust2Wingman pick
50%60%
Wingman · 2 mapsedge XI +10%XI · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
Wingman · 1 mapedge Wingman +10%XI · 2 maps
DefaultWingman ban
50%67%
Wingman · 0 mapsedge XI +17%XI · 2 maps
InfernoXI ban
60%40%
Wingman · 1 mapedge Wingman +20%XI · 1 map
MirageXI ban
60%50%
Wingman · 1 mapedge Wingman +10%XI · 0 maps
OverpassWingman ban
40%50%
Wingman · 1 mapedge XI +10%XI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWingman remove Overpass
2. BanXI remove Mirage
3. PickWingman take Dust2
4. PickXI take Ancient
5. BanXI remove Inferno
6. BanWingman remove Default
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:5
Wingman 37%XI 63%
The model gave 63% on XI — the map was taken by Wingman.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Wingman 43%XI 57%
The model gave 57% on XI — the map was taken by Wingman.
Model check result
Model favoriteXI · 59%
Series resultWingman 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2