PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#119 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWithout a Roof pick
43%40%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Celestial · 1 map
MirageCelestial ban
50%50%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Celestial · 0 maps
AncientWithout a Roof ban
40%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Celestial +10%Celestial · 0 maps
CacheCelestial pick
50%40%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Celestial · 1 map
Dust2Celestial ban
60%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +10%Celestial · 0 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
40%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Celestial +10%Celestial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
2. BanCelestial remove Dust2
3. PickWithout a Roof take Inferno
4. PickCelestial take Cache
5. BanCelestial remove Mirage
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
Without a Roof 47%Celestial 53%
The model gave 53% on Celestial — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
Without a Roof 43%Celestial 57%
The model gave 57% on Celestial — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 60%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2