PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#119 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EMPIRE#172 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWithout a Roof ban
43%44%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsnearly even -1%EMPIRE · 5 maps
NukeEMPIRE pick
50%63%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsedge EMPIRE +13%EMPIRE · 4 maps
MirageEMPIRE ban
57%50%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%EMPIRE · 2 maps
AncientWithout a Roof ban
40%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +10%EMPIRE · 2 maps
Dust2Without a Roof pick
60%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +10%EMPIRE · 2 maps
CacheEMPIRE ban
50%40%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%EMPIRE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Ancient
2. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
3. PickWithout a Roof take Dust2
4. PickEMPIRE take Nuke
5. BanEMPIRE remove Cache
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Without a Roof 43%EMPIRE 57%
The model gave 57% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Without a Roof 57%EMPIRE 43%
The model gave 57% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Without a Roof 48%EMPIRE 52%
The model gave 52% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 54%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3