CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
F5#208 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWithout a Roof pick
60%50%
Without a Roof · 11 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%F5 · 2 maps
AncientF5 pick
50%67%
Without a Roof · 10 mapsedge F5 +17%F5 · 2 maps
InfernoF5 ban
67%60%
Without a Roof · 11 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%F5 · 1 map
NukeWithout a Roof ban
50%50%
Without a Roof · 6 mapsnearly even +0%F5 · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%40%
Without a Roof · 6 mapsnearly even +0%F5 · 1 map
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +10%F5 · 0 maps
CacheF5 ban
40%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge F5 +10%F5 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanF5 remove Inferno
3. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
4. PickF5 take Ancient
5. BanF5 remove Cache
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Without a Roof 57%F5 43%
The model gave 57% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
Without a Roof 60%F5 40%
The model gave 60% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 67%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2