FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#81 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
60%40%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +20%LAG · 6 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
50%60%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 6 maps
Dust2LAG pick
60%75%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge LAG +15%LAG · 4 maps
MirageLAG ban
50%50%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 4 maps
AncientWithout a Roof ban
50%29%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +21%LAG · 3 maps
AnubisLAG ban
50%40%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%LAG · 1 map
DefaultWithout a Roof pick
50%40%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
2. BanLAG remove Anubis
3. PickWithout a Roof take Default
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Mirage
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Without a Roof 74%LAG 26%
The model gave 74% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by LAG.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Without a Roof 37%LAG 63%
The model gave 63% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 67%
Series resultLAG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2