NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#119 in the world · win 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LAG#95 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG ban
55%50%
Without a Roof · 7 mapsedge Without a Roof +5%LAG · 6 maps
AncientLAG ban
56%44%
Without a Roof · 5 mapsedge Without a Roof +12%LAG · 5 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
70%50%
Without a Roof · 6 mapsedge Without a Roof +20%LAG · 4 maps
Dust2LAG pick
43%60%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsedge LAG +17%LAG · 6 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
50%50%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 6 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%71%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge LAG +11%LAG · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanLAG remove Ancient
3. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Inferno
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Without a Roof 64%LAG 36%
The model gave 64% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by LAG.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Without a Roof 31%LAG 69%
The model gave 69% on LAG — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
Without a Roof 55%LAG 45%
The model gave 55% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 64%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3