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PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#119 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Marsborne#84 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
58%67%
Without a Roof · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +9%Marsborne · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%67%
Without a Roof · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Marsborne · 11 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%58%
Without a Roof · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +8%Marsborne · 8 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
70%70%
Without a Roof · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 6 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
50%56%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +6%Marsborne · 5 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%67%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Marsborne +7%Marsborne · 5 maps
DefaultWithout a Roof pick
50%67%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Marsborne · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
3. PickWithout a Roof take Default
4. PickMarsborne take Inferno
5. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
Without a Roof 36%Marsborne 64%
The model gave 64% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Without a Roof 38%Marsborne 62%
The model gave 62% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 58%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2