FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#81 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
60%64%
Without a Roof · 1 mapnearly even -4%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
NukeSportsBetExpert pick
40%69%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +29%SportsBetExpert · 9 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
50%70%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +20%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
60%33%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +27%SportsBetExpert · 5 maps
CacheWithout a Roof pick
50%38%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +12%SportsBetExpert · 4 maps
MirageWithout a Roof ban
50%63%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +13%SportsBetExpert · 4 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
40%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickWithout a Roof take Cache
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Nuke
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (60% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Without a Roof 35%SportsBetExpert 65%
The model gave 65% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Without a Roof 48%SportsBetExpert 52%
The model gave 52% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 66%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2