FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Without a Roofwin 13:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 13:2
Wanted Goons#203 in the world · loss 2:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWithout a Roof ban
50%58%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +8%Wanted Goons · 8 maps
NukeWanted Goons ban
50%33%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +17%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
Dust2Wanted Goons ban
50%38%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +12%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
MirageWithout a Roof ban
50%38%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +12%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%57%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
60%40%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +20%Wanted Goons · 1 map
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
50%40%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
3. BanWithout a Roof remove Mirage
4. BanWanted Goons remove Nuke
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Ancient
6. BanWanted Goons remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Without a Roof 63%Wanted Goons 37%
The model gave 63% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 53%
Series resultWithout a Roof 13:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1