Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
50%53%
WW · 4 mapsnearly even -3%CYBERSHOKE · 15 maps
MirageWW pick
63%53%
WW · 4 mapsedge WW +10%CYBERSHOKE · 11 maps
AncientWW ban
50%63%
WW · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +13%CYBERSHOKE · 12 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
50%36%
WW · 0 mapsedge WW +14%CYBERSHOKE · 7 maps
NukeWW ban
33%38%
WW · 2 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +5%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%43%
WW · 2 mapsedge WW +7%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
50%50%
WW · 2 mapsnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickWW take Mirage
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
6. BanWW remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
WW 62%CYBERSHOKE 38%
The model gave 62% on WW — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Overpassprediction missed7:13
WW 61%CYBERSHOKE 39%
The model gave 61% on WW — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 57%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2