1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#81 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NOVAQ#104 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW pick
50%67%
WW · 8 mapsedge NOVAQ +17%NOVAQ · 5 maps
MirageNOVAQ ban
60%57%
WW · 6 mapsnearly even +3%NOVAQ · 3 maps
AncientWW ban
50%50%
WW · 0 mapsnearly even +0%NOVAQ · 6 maps
AnubisNOVAQ ban
44%40%
WW · 5 mapsnearly even +4%NOVAQ · 1 map
CacheWW ban
43%50%
WW · 3 mapsedge NOVAQ +7%NOVAQ · 0 maps
InfernoNOVAQ pick
50%57%
WW · 0 mapsedge NOVAQ +7%NOVAQ · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%50%
WW · 3 mapsedge WW +7%NOVAQ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanNOVAQ remove Anubis
3. PickWW take Dust2
4. PickNOVAQ take Inferno
5. BanNOVAQ remove Mirage
6. BanWW remove Cache
DeciderNuke (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
WW 40%NOVAQ 60%
The model gave 60% on NOVAQ — the map was taken by WW.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
WW 56%NOVAQ 44%
The model gave 56% on WW — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 56%
Series resultWW 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2