Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom Academy pick
57%73%
WW · 10 mapsedge Phantom Academy +16%Phantom Academy · 11 maps
Dust2WW pick
50%56%
WW · 12 mapsedge Phantom Academy +6%Phantom Academy · 5 maps
CachePhantom Academy ban
38%42%
WW · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom Academy · 8 maps
AncientWW ban
43%42%
WW · 3 mapsnearly even +1%Phantom Academy · 8 maps
AnubisPhantom Academy ban
50%43%
WW · 6 mapsedge WW +7%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%60%
WW · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Phantom Academy · 6 maps
DefaultWW ban
50%43%
WW · 0 mapsedge WW +7%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Anubis
3. PickWW take Dust2
4. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Cache
6. BanWW remove Default
DeciderNuke (57% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
WW 47%Phantom Academy 53%
The model gave 53% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by WW.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
WW 44%Phantom Academy 56%
The model gave 56% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 65%
Series resultWW 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2