ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LEGAMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLEGAM ban
50%40%
WXM · 0 mapsedge WXM +10%LEGAM · 1 map
AnubisWXM pick
50%40%
WXM · 0 mapsedge WXM +10%LEGAM · 1 map
CacheLEGAM pick
50%40%
WXM · 0 mapsedge WXM +10%LEGAM · 1 map
Dust2WXM ban
50%60%
WXM · 0 mapsedge LEGAM +10%LEGAM · 1 map
MirageLEGAM ban
50%40%
WXM · 0 mapsedge WXM +10%LEGAM · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWXM remove Dust2
2. BanLEGAM remove Ancient
3. PickWXM take Anubis
4. PickLEGAM take Cache
5. BanLEGAM remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
WXM 57%LEGAM 43%
The model gave 57% on WXM — the map was taken by WXM.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
WXM 43%LEGAM 57%
The model gave 57% on LEGAM — the map was taken by WXM.
Model check result
Model favoriteWXM · 50%
Series resultWXM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2