ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
WXMloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PATSANVISION pick
60%57%
WXM · 1 mapnearly even +3%PATSANVISION · 3 maps
MirageWXM pick
67%50%
WXM · 2 mapsedge WXM +17%PATSANVISION · 2 maps
NukeWXM ban
40%60%
WXM · 1 mapedge PATSANVISION +20%PATSANVISION · 1 map
AncientPATSANVISION ban
40%50%
WXM · 1 mapedge PATSANVISION +10%PATSANVISION · 0 maps
InfernoPATSANVISION ban
50%40%
WXM · 0 mapsedge WXM +10%PATSANVISION · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWXM remove Nuke
2. BanPATSANVISION remove Ancient
3. PickWXM take Mirage
4. PickPATSANVISION take Dust2
5. BanPATSANVISION remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
WXM 53%PATSANVISION 47%
The model gave 53% on WXM — the map was taken by WXM.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
WXM 64%PATSANVISION 36%
The model gave 64% on WXM — the map was taken by PATSANVISION.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
WXM 60%PATSANVISION 40%
The model gave 60% on WXM — the map was taken by PATSANVISION.
Model check result
Model favoritePATSANVISION · 50%
Series resultPATSANVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3