ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
XDM#222 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nas#189 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNas pick
60%43%
XDM · 1 mapedge XDM +17%Nas · 3 maps
NukeXDM ban
40%50%
XDM · 1 mapedge Nas +10%Nas · 2 maps
Dust2Nas ban
50%50%
XDM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nas · 2 maps
MirageXDM pick
33%50%
XDM · 2 mapsedge Nas +17%Nas · 0 maps
InfernoNas ban
60%50%
XDM · 1 mapedge XDM +10%Nas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXDM remove Nuke
2. BanNas remove Inferno
3. PickXDM take Mirage
4. PickNas take Ancient
5. BanNas remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
XDM 37%Nas 63%
The model gave 63% on Nas — the map was taken by XDM.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
XDM 36%Nas 64%
The model gave 64% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
XDM 67%Nas 33%
The model gave 67% on XDM — the map was taken by Nas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 54%
Series resultNas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3