ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
XDM#211 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageXDM ban
29%50%
XDM · 3 mapsedge Secret +21%Secret · 0 maps
AncientXDM pick
50%50%
XDM · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Secret · 0 maps
NukeSecret pick
50%50%
XDM · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Secret · 0 maps
InfernoSecret ban
60%50%
XDM · 1 mapedge XDM +10%Secret · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXDM remove Mirage
2. BanSecret remove Inferno
3. PickXDM take Ancient
4. PickSecret take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
XDM 47%Secret 53%
The model gave 53% on Secret — the map was taken by XDM.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
XDM 63%Secret 37%
The model gave 63% on XDM — the map was taken by Secret.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
XDM 50%Secret 50%
The model gave 50% on XDM — the map was taken by Secret.
Model check result
Model favoriteXDM · 54%
Series resultSecret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3