ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
XDM#222 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The Huns#123 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoThe Huns ban
60%26%
XDM · 6 mapsedge XDM +34%The Huns · 19 maps
Dust2XDM ban
38%58%
XDM · 4 mapsedge The Huns +20%The Huns · 20 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%52%
XDM · 3 mapsedge XDM +5%The Huns · 17 maps
AncientThe Huns ban
50%53%
XDM · 4 mapsnearly even -3%The Huns · 15 maps
MirageXDM pick
30%38%
XDM · 6 mapsedge The Huns +8%The Huns · 12 maps
CacheXDM ban
33%56%
XDM · 2 mapsedge The Huns +23%The Huns · 5 maps
DefaultThe Huns pick
40%50%
XDM · 1 mapedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXDM remove Cache
2. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
3. PickXDM take Mirage
4. PickThe Huns take Default
5. BanThe Huns remove Ancient
6. BanXDM remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (57% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
XDM 40%The Huns 60%
The model gave 60% on The Huns — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 71%
Series resultThe Huns 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1