ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
XI#239 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Clutchain#199 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeClutchain pick
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge Clutchain +10%Clutchain · 2 maps
AncientXI pick
60%60%
XI · 1 mapnearly even +0%Clutchain · 1 map
Dust2Clutchain ban
60%40%
XI · 1 mapedge XI +20%Clutchain · 1 map
AnubisClutchain ban
50%40%
XI · 0 mapsedge XI +10%Clutchain · 1 map
InfernoXI ban
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge Clutchain +10%Clutchain · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXI remove Inferno
2. BanClutchain remove Anubis
3. PickXI take Ancient
4. PickClutchain take Nuke
5. BanClutchain remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
XI 53%Clutchain 47%
The model gave 53% on XI — the map was taken by Clutchain.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
XI 50%Clutchain 50%
The model gave 50% on XI — the map was taken by XI.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
XI 50%Clutchain 50%
The model gave 50% on XI — the map was taken by XI.
Model check result
Model favoriteClutchain · 57%
Series resultXI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3