BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · win 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
60%50%
Yawara · 16 mapsedge Yawara +10%ex-GUARA · 0 maps
Dust2ex-GUARA ban
67%50%
Yawara · 14 mapsedge Yawara +17%ex-GUARA · 0 maps
Ancientex-GUARA pick
44%50%
Yawara · 12 mapsedge ex-GUARA +6%ex-GUARA · 0 maps
AnubisYawara ban
44%50%
Yawara · 5 mapsedge ex-GUARA +6%ex-GUARA · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%50%
Yawara · 5 mapsedge Yawara +6%ex-GUARA · 0 maps
Overpassex-GUARA ban
67%50%
Yawara · 2 mapsedge Yawara +17%ex-GUARA · 0 maps
CacheYawara ban
40%50%
Yawara · 1 mapedge ex-GUARA +10%ex-GUARA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Cache
2. Banex-GUARA remove Dust2
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. Pickex-GUARA take Ancient
5. Banex-GUARA remove Overpass
6. BanYawara remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Yawara 50%ex-GUARA 50%
The model gave 50% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 58%
Series resultYawara 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1