Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GameHunters#122 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Yawara pick
65%30%
Yawara · 13 mapsedge Yawara +35%GameHunters · 6 maps
AncientGameHunters pick
36%50%
Yawara · 7 mapsedge GameHunters +14%GameHunters · 2 maps
MirageGameHunters ban
67%40%
Yawara · 8 mapsedge Yawara +27%GameHunters · 1 map
InfernoYawara ban
50%40%
Yawara · 6 mapsedge Yawara +10%GameHunters · 1 map
AnubisGameHunters ban
44%40%
Yawara · 5 mapsnearly even +4%GameHunters · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%33%
Yawara · 1 mapedge Yawara +27%GameHunters · 5 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%43%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%GameHunters · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanGameHunters remove Mirage
3. PickYawara take Dust2
4. PickGameHunters take Ancient
5. BanGameHunters remove Anubis
6. BanYawara remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:0
Yawara 34%GameHunters 66%
The model gave 66% on GameHunters — the map was taken by Yawara.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Yawara 77%GameHunters 23%
The model gave 77% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 61%
Series resultYawara 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2