Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Yawara pick
65%54%
Yawara · 16 mapsedge Yawara +11%METANOIA Wolves · 9 maps
AncientYawara ban
40%44%
Yawara · 11 mapsnearly even -4%METANOIA Wolves · 5 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
67%33%
Yawara · 14 mapsedge Yawara +34%METANOIA Wolves · 2 maps
InfernoMETANOIA Wolves pick
50%50%
Yawara · 6 mapsnearly even +0%METANOIA Wolves · 2 maps
AnubisMETANOIA Wolves ban
44%33%
Yawara · 5 mapsedge Yawara +11%METANOIA Wolves · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%56%
Yawara · 1 mapnearly even +4%METANOIA Wolves · 5 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%57%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +7%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
3. PickYawara take Dust2
4. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Inferno
5. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Anubis
6. BanYawara remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Yawara 47%METANOIA Wolves 53%
The model gave 53% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by Yawara.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
Yawara 64%METANOIA Wolves 36%
The model gave 64% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 64%
Series resultYawara 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2