ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#197 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoZomblers pick
54%75%
Zomblers · 9 mapsedge Club 333 +21%Club 333 · 4 maps
Dust2Club 333 pick
44%38%
Zomblers · 5 mapsedge Zomblers +6%Club 333 · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%33%
Zomblers · 4 mapsedge Zomblers +17%Club 333 · 5 maps
NukeZomblers ban
38%40%
Zomblers · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Club 333 · 1 map
AncientClub 333 ban
67%40%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +27%Club 333 · 1 map
AnubisClub 333 ban
33%50%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Club 333 +17%Club 333 · 0 maps
CacheZomblers ban
50%40%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge Zomblers +10%Club 333 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Cache
2. BanClub 333 remove Ancient
3. PickZomblers take Inferno
4. PickClub 333 take Dust2
5. BanClub 333 remove Anubis
6. BanZomblers remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Zomblers 26%Club 333 74%
The model gave 74% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
Zomblers 60%Club 333 40%
The model gave 60% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteClub 333 · 57%
Series resultZomblers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2