ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#192 in the world · win 2:1series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fisher College#85 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFisher College pick
60%57%
Zomblers · 1 mapnearly even +3%Fisher College · 3 maps
InfernoFisher College ban
50%43%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge Zomblers +7%Fisher College · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Zomblers · 1 mapnearly even +0%Fisher College · 1 map
Dust2Fisher College ban
33%50%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Fisher College +17%Fisher College · 0 maps
MirageZomblers ban
60%40%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +20%Fisher College · 1 map
NukeZomblers pick
50%33%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge Zomblers +17%Fisher College · 2 maps
AnubisZomblers ban
50%60%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge Fisher College +10%Fisher College · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Anubis
2. BanFisher College remove Dust2
3. PickZomblers take Nuke
4. PickFisher College take Ancient
5. BanFisher College remove Inferno
6. BanZomblers remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed8:13
Zomblers 53%Fisher College 47%
The model gave 53% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Fisher College.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Zomblers 50%Fisher College 50%
The model gave 50% on Fisher College — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Zomblers 69%Fisher College 31%
The model gave 69% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteFisher College · 78%
Series resultZomblers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3