ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#192 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFor Fun pick
43%44%
Zomblers · 3 mapsnearly even -1%For Fun · 5 maps
InfernoZomblers pick
57%57%
Zomblers · 3 mapsnearly even +0%For Fun · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%44%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +16%For Fun · 5 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
50%43%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +7%For Fun · 3 maps
AncientZomblers ban
50%57%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge For Fun +7%For Fun · 3 maps
AnubisZomblers ban
50%50%
Zomblers · 0 mapsnearly even +0%For Fun · 2 maps
DefaultFor Fun ban
60%50%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +10%For Fun · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Anubis
2. BanFor Fun remove Default
3. PickZomblers take Inferno
4. PickFor Fun take Nuke
5. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
6. BanZomblers remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Zomblers 40%For Fun 60%
The model gave 60% on For Fun — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Zomblers 53%For Fun 47%
The model gave 53% on Zomblers — the map was taken by For Fun.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Zomblers 57%For Fun 43%
The model gave 57% on Zomblers — the map was taken by For Fun.
Model check result
Model favoriteZomblers · 56%
Series resultFor Fun 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3