CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#197 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NuTorious#202 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoZomblers pick
50%33%
Zomblers · 6 mapsedge Zomblers +17%NuTorious · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%31%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +36%NuTorious · 9 maps
MirageNuTorious pick
60%54%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +6%NuTorious · 9 maps
NukeZomblers ban
43%43%
Zomblers · 3 mapsnearly even +0%NuTorious · 3 maps
CacheZomblers ban
50%50%
Zomblers · 0 mapsnearly even +0%NuTorious · 4 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
50%50%
Zomblers · 4 mapsnearly even +0%NuTorious · 0 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
40%33%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +7%NuTorious · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Cache
2. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
3. PickZomblers take Inferno
4. PickNuTorious take Mirage
5. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
6. BanZomblers remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (67% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Zomblers 69%NuTorious 31%
The model gave 69% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Zomblers 53%NuTorious 47%
The model gave 53% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 51%
Series resultZomblers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2