ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
ZOTIX#322 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Banger Gang pick
50%50%
ZOTIX · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 4 maps
AncientBanger Gang ban
63%40%
ZOTIX · 4 mapsedge ZOTIX +23%Banger Gang · 1 map
AnubisZOTIX pick
60%67%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +7%Banger Gang · 2 maps
MirageZOTIX ban
40%67%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +27%Banger Gang · 2 maps
InfernoBanger Gang ban
50%50%
ZOTIX · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 0 maps
NukeZOTIX ban
40%50%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +10%Banger Gang · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZOTIX remove Nuke
2. BanBanger Gang remove Ancient
3. PickZOTIX take Anubis
4. PickBanger Gang take Dust2
5. BanBanger Gang remove Inferno
6. BanZOTIX remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
ZOTIX 53%Banger Gang 47%
The model gave 53% on ZOTIX — the map was taken by ZOTIX.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
ZOTIX 47%Banger Gang 53%
The model gave 53% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
ZOTIX 50%Banger Gang 50%
The model gave 50% on ZOTIX — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Model check result
Model favoriteBanger Gang · 65%
Series resultBanger Gang 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3