ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
ZOTIXwin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientZOTIX pick
50%50%
ZOTIX · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ex-VP.Prodigy · 0 maps
Infernoex-VP.Prodigy ban
50%50%
ZOTIX · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ex-VP.Prodigy · 0 maps
Dust2ex-VP.Prodigy pick
50%60%
ZOTIX · 0 mapsedge ex-VP.Prodigy +10%ex-VP.Prodigy · 1 map
Mirageex-VP.Prodigy ban
40%50%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge ex-VP.Prodigy +10%ex-VP.Prodigy · 0 maps
NukeZOTIX ban
50%60%
ZOTIX · 0 mapsedge ex-VP.Prodigy +10%ex-VP.Prodigy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZOTIX remove Nuke
2. Banex-VP.Prodigy remove Inferno
3. PickZOTIX take Ancient
4. Pickex-VP.Prodigy take Dust2
5. Banex-VP.Prodigy remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
ZOTIX 53%ex-VP.Prodigy 47%
The model gave 53% on ZOTIX — the map was taken by ZOTIX.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
ZOTIX 37%ex-VP.Prodigy 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-VP.Prodigy — the map was taken by ex-VP.Prodigy.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
ZOTIX 50%ex-VP.Prodigy 50%
The model gave 50% on ZOTIX — the map was taken by ZOTIX.
Model check result
Model favoriteZOTIX · 58%
Series resultZOTIX 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3