ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 13:3series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 13:3
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 3:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix ban
67%33%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge 100 Thieves +34%Lilmix · 5 maps
Ancient100 Thieves ban
46%29%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +17%Lilmix · 3 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
71%40%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge 100 Thieves +31%Lilmix · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Lilmix · 2 maps
InfernoLilmix ban
58%33%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge 100 Thieves +25%Lilmix · 2 maps
Nuke100 Thieves ban
46%50%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Lilmix · 0 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
60%43%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +17%Lilmix · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanLilmix remove Dust2
3. Ban100 Thieves remove Nuke
4. BanLilmix remove Mirage
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
6. BanLilmix remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
100 Thieves 68%Lilmix 32%
The model gave 68% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 87%
Series result100 Thieves 13:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1