StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
59%50%
100 Thieves · 13 mapsedge 100 Thieves +9%Nuclear TigeRES · 12 maps
Dust2100 Thieves pick
80%53%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsedge 100 Thieves +27%Nuclear TigeRES · 13 maps
Nuke100 Thieves ban
43%50%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 12 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
50%74%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +24%Nuclear TigeRES · 15 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
55%60%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%67%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (57% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed15:19
100 Thieves 56%Nuclear TigeRES 44%
The model gave 56% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
100 Thieves 47%Nuclear TigeRES 53%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
100 Thieves 40%Nuclear TigeRES 60%
The model gave 60% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 66%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3