KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 13:7series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 13:7
ALTAY#196 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageALTAY ban
54%50%
Rune Eaters · 20 mapsnearly even +4%ALTAY · 0 maps
Dust2ALTAY ban
55%50%
Rune Eaters · 18 mapsedge Rune Eaters +5%ALTAY · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%50%
Rune Eaters · 15 mapsnearly even -3%ALTAY · 0 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
43%50%
Rune Eaters · 10 mapsedge ALTAY +7%ALTAY · 0 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
33%50%
Rune Eaters · 5 mapsedge ALTAY +17%ALTAY · 0 maps
DefaultALTAY ban
50%50%
Rune Eaters · 4 mapsnearly even +0%ALTAY · 0 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
33%50%
Rune Eaters · 2 mapsedge ALTAY +17%ALTAY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
2. BanALTAY remove Dust2
3. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
4. BanALTAY remove Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
6. BanALTAY remove Default
DeciderAncient (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Rune Eaters 55%ALTAY 45%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 71%
Series resultRune Eaters 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1